2022

Have the laws of political gravity been repealed?

Doom awaits. Democracy is on the line. Fascism is on the rise. And even if you don't believe all that, there's simple history at work. The party in power usually gets creamed in midterm elections.

To which I say: "Slow your roll, hoss."

The midterms may not be the Democractic wipeout predicted by pundits.

Consider The Impact Of Polling

With the demise of newspapers, a lot of polling is done by partisan or semi-partisan leaning outfits. Republican support often winds up overstated, which makes it easier to claim an election was stolen because you can holler that the outcome isn't what the polls said. This right-wing lean is particularly true of a site that used to be pretty good, Real Clear Politics.

Pollsters, theoretically at least, are data-driven, so they consistently discount the turnout of young voters. They won't know they are wrong in their assumptions until they are wrong. I suspect this is the year. they are wrong.

The Quality Of Political Debate

The polite euphemism is "low-information voter," the people who don't pay attention to news, or worse, pay too much attention to news outlets that really aren't news at all.

Not having an agreed-upon set of facts really undermines political debate. When somebody says President Biden has done nothing, when in reality he's done a lot, that's not a debate on policy choices. That's an alternative reality.

Most Democrats believe if people know the facts, they'll make the right choice. That's why there's an entire media ecosystem to make sure that doesn't happen.

More on that in a bit.

The Quality Of The Candidate Still Matters

Currently in vogue is the tribal theory of politics, that the only thing that matters is the "R" after the name. This theory is facing a severe test this time around.

Every political party has had its share of kooks, but this year's Republican field is a truly astounding collection of scoundrels, hypocrites, fakes, liars and election deniers. I need not get into specifics here.

Instead, I'd like to talk about U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, who is running for this EIGHTH term. He's older than Noah. He's so old the theme at his high school prom was "fire."

From my days as a political reporter, I can say age is a factor voters think about but don't talk about. It's one of those issues that lead people to politely lie, to talk one way and vote in the other. If the old laws of politics still applied, he wouldn't even be running.

And I believe the old laws of politics still apply.

At Some Point, You Have To Be For Something

Republicans exist to prevent Democrats from doing bad things. That's been the story for about 20 years, and the question was how long it could keep working. Before every election crime is on rise, when statistically it's not. Before every election, your taxes are too high. Somebody's coming to take away your freedom.

Two iron rules of politics over my lifetime is that teachers never get paid better and nobody comes for your guns. What's changed this time around is the party that preaches freedom is the one taking freedoms away. From abortion rights and marriage equality to what teachers can say and what children can read in schools.

Suddenly Republicans actually have to be for something, and many of those things are really unpopular.

Elections are popularity contests, after all.

"I Stans It And I Stans It Until I Can't Stans It No More"

In the immortal words of Popeye, being fed up is a powerful motivator. There are three giant issues — climate change, gun control and income inequality — that are barely of consequence to Republicans. And that brings me to history's lesson on dictators: Support is widespread until it disappears overnight.

American history says if the positions of a politcal party do not have enough support to win elections, then that party dies off or changes its positions. The idea that the answer is to overturn the election is quite new and quite dangerous, but I believe democracy will prevail in the federal elections of Nov. 8.

But I also believe it's only one battle in a long war. There are serious, anti-democratic gerrymandering efforts in places like Ohio and Wisconsin, and there's a stacked federal judiciary ready to undo whatever a Democratic Congress can pass.

On a very basic level, politics is an extension of personal psychology. People do what they do because it gives them what they want. When it stops working for them, they change.

A gridlocked government riddled with soundbite shysters and slogan-throwing frauds isn't working. And people will stans it and stans it, until they can't stans it no more.

Like, about now.

Published: Nov. 3, 2022

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Mr. Marshall, who uses italics when speaking in his third-person footers, believes Democrats will pick up multiple Senate seats and hold on to control of the House by exactly one seat.